Operating revenue of in-scope banks totaled $126bn in 9m24, 9% ahead of the prior-year period. The strongest growth was in transaction fees, which were supported by rate cuts and the early optimism regarding the China’s economic stimulus; however, market participants expect a seasonal slowdown in 4Q24. Investment management fees also jumped, with advisory fees outpacing discretionary. Net interest income declined slightly vs 3Q23 and 9m24, in line with banks’ early guidance.
The high-end segment, catering to clients with $10m+ of investable assets, recorded the fastest growth, which reflects the banks’ repositioning in recent years. The leaders in this segment, and especially the top-end $25m+, continue to extend their lead.
AuM surged 21% y/y; however, this impressive growth was due to external factors (strong markets, in particular) rather than net new money inflows. The AuM growth in the USA outpaced EMEA and APAC. All client segments contributed, with $10-25m edging ahead. Firms in this note are generally optimistic regarding the near term outlook: a decline in base rates should increase clients’ risk appetite; also, a pickup in M&A activity should benefit firms with strong links to business owners.