Capital Markets
HSBC has not yet released its 2025 results, so Tricumen estimated the bank’s 4Q25 performance.
Banks’ capital markets revenues exceeded $250bn, up 13% from FY24. Equities delivered the fastest growth, followed by FICC and Banking. Operating costs – driven mainly by performance‑related compensation and technology – rose more slowly, allowing profits across all three core segments to surge by 20%. Front‑office productivity improved broadly, with the strongest gains in Equities. North American banks slightly outperformed their European peers on both revenue and profit growth, partly because FX movements weighed on reported European revenues.
Commercial Banking & Treasury Services
Commercial banking revenues in 2025 were shaped by weaker global growth, persistent uncertainty, and a shift toward fee‑based and data‑driven services. Revenue growth was supported by strong financing demand, stable deposits, higher margins, and reinvestment of low‑cost funding, while credit provisions increased though not (yet) to levels that cause concern. Net interest income outperformed consensus expectations, supporting overall profitability. Specialized lending saw a shift toward AI-driven infrastructure finance, heightened competition in commercial real estate (CRE), and a pivot towards sustainability-linked lending.
Treasury Services were driven by the rapid adoption of AI-powered forecasting, real-time liquidity management, and API integration to optimize cash flow. Key trends included heightened focus on reducing bank fee expenses through in-house banking, increased outsourcing of manual tasks, and leveraging technology to mitigate geopolitical risks.
BIS tested whether generative AI agents could handle intraday liquidity management in wholesale payment systems – and found that, even without specialised training, the system replicated prudential cash management practices without domain-specific training.
Several banks announced new initiatives designed to improve crypto capabilities for institutional clients.