Sector: Capital Markets 4Q12 Initial View

Tricumen publishes its Capital Markets Initial View for 4Q12/FY12 reporting season, comprising aggregated high-level analysis of product revenue and headcount for the world’s 11 leading Investment Banks. Highlights:

  • In turbulent markets, the Top 11 capital markets players featured in this report actually increased their FY12 revenue by 5%, from $168bn in FY11 to $178bn in FY12.  A strong FICC sales and trading performance was largely offset by flat primary fees and weaker equity sales and trading.
  • Major layoffs were announced in 2H12 and early 2013, however.  During 2012, ‘our’ Top 11 peers reduced their front office full-time equivalent headcounts by 10%.  The greatest reduction was in 2012 equities sales and trading (-12% y/y), followed by origination & advisory and FICC.  Equities revenue per head remains low, however, so we expect further decline in staffing levels during 1H13.
  • Goldman Sachs saw the greatest gains in market share after weaker performance in 2011.  While both J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley saw similar declines in market share, J.P.Morgan’s was from a position of strength while Morgan Stanley’s is of more concern.

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