Capital Markets
Peer group revenues reached $192bn in 9m25, marking a 14% y/y increase. All three core business segments posted revenue gains of 12-15%, with FICC and Equities also delivering over 10% growth in front-office productivity. Operating expenses rose – primarily driven by elevated front-office comp and continued investment in technology – but at a more moderate pace. As a result, aggregate pre-tax profit surged 20% compared to 9m24, with Banking comfortably in the lead.
In the US, the turf war between traditional banks and the crypto industry is escalating, with banks sharpening their lobbying efforts around the newly enacted GENIUS Act. Bank’s key lobbying objectives include a ban on interest payments via third parties, restricting cross-state access for state-regulated stablecoin issuers and charging cryptos and other third parties for bank customers’ data.
Buoyed by the crypto-friendly stance of the current US administration, digital asset firms are increasingly expanding into stock trading. If successful, they stand to benefit from a more flexible regulatory framework than traditional financial institutions. Incumbents are pushing back – calling for tokenized equities to be subject to the same regulatory standards as conventional securities, including equivalent obligations for service providers. Without such parity, they warn, the market could be fragmented into distinct capital pools operating under unequal rules. While the debate remains centered on the US for now, it is beginning to gain traction in international jurisdictions as well.
Commercial Banking & Treasury Services
Corporate lending in the US rebounded sharply, driven by repricing and refinancing activity amid tighter spreads and strong investor demand. Middle-market and leveraged loan segments led the recovery. Corporate lending in Europe saw a combination of easing financial conditions, growing risk appetite, a loosening of covenant protections and rising demand for leveraged financing. APAC showed signs of stabilization, with resilient mid-market activity, cautious bank behaviour, and growing reliance on private credit—especially in India, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
Transaction banking continues its digital transformation, with strong momentum in real-time payments, API integration, and AI-driven cash and liquidity management. Trade finance and supply chain solutions also evolved amid geopolitical and ESG pressures. In the US, payments revenue grew strongly, driven by higher interest rates and volume growth. In Europe, interest hedging, higher average deposit balances and growth in fees offset the headwinds from margin contraction and the negative FX effects. Demand grew for multi-tier supply chain finance in Europe and Asia as corporates sought to support smaller suppliers amid macro uncertainty.